And then there were four.
The New York Liberty, Atalanta Dream, Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries are the only teams left playing WNBA basketball.
It’s a pair conference semifinal affairs with the Western Conference teams Las Vegas and Golden State on one side of the bracket and Atlanta and New York representing the East on the other.
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In this matchup between the No. 4-seed Dream and No. 8-seed Liberty, both teams have paths to victory. But, which squad will execute their game plan and reach the WNBA Finals?
We’ll begin to find out on Sunday in Atlanta (2 p.m. ET, ABC).
How Atlanta can win
Angel Reese. | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Everything with the Dream starts with Angel Reese.
The WNBA’s Defensive Player of the Year will have her hands full battling New York’s bigs and trying to reduce their scoring in the paint.
If anyone can neutralize Jonquel Jones, though, it’s Reese.
The two have already had some spirited battles, including their matchup on Sept. 21, when the Dream beat the Liberty 95-84 and Reese and Jones both scored over one another and talked smack.
Reese won’t just need to be an elite defender. She has to score, too. Reese averaged 14 points per game in the first round series against the Mystics. That was more than enough against the inexperienced Washington team, but more will be necessary in the semifinals.
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The Liberty are not the typical No. 8 seed. They have championship pedigree, and Stewart is still among the league’s best players. Atlanta can win only if they play at a near-optimum level.
While Reese is the epicenter of all things Dream, she is not alone on an island. Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray have been pivotal to Atlanta’s success, and they’ll be a huge factor in how this series goes. Howard has to be a three-level scorer and create havoc on that Liberty defense.
In the backcourt, Gray will have her hands full on both sides of the ball. She’ll have to try to maintain her regular-season numbers on offense. Gray averaged a team-high 19 points per game. On the other end of the floor, she needs to slow down players like Sabrina Ionescu.
That’s easier said than done, but this deep into the postseason, no matchup is easy. The good news for Atlanta is they have proof they can beat New York. They ended the season series up 2-1, with both victories happening in the final two games of the season.
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The Dream have home-court advantage, so they should be feeling good knowing they are in the driver’s seat to start this series.
How New York can win
Breanna Stewart | Getty Images
If the Liberty feared the Minnesota Lynx in the opening round, then they certainly hid it extremely well.
They looked like the No. 1 seed, and Minnesota seemed like a team lucky to be there. But that’s what happens when you get the full Stewart experience.
She dismantled the Lynx, and now they are playing with house money. No one expected New York to win, and now they are just three victories from their third Finals appearance in four years. To get there, it’ll take another heroic effort from Stewart. She did it in the first round, just like she did it at the FIBA World Cup. I wouldn’t bet on her falling short in this moment.
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The Liberty can’t rely on Stewart alone; they’ll need Jones. Her 21-point performance in Game 2 against the Lynx was what helped secure their series win. They’ll need more games like that to pull off another upset.
Another important player will be Ionescu. She has had a down season, but these are the games that matter. If she can get into the paint, earn some trips to the charity stripe and knock down the occasional 3, it will go a long way toward improving New York’s chances.
The regular season was a disappointment for the Liberty. But in the playoffs, they have overachieved and shown the template for their success moving forward.
Perhaps they are on a magical run. Or maybe the Lynx just weren’t ready for the moment, and the Dream are and will show it in this series.
We’ll find out soon enough. In the comments, let us know your series predictions.
