The Cincinnati Reds have really backed themselves into a hole when it comes to the roster construction on their infield.
You may recall they’ve steadfastly stuck to the idea of continuing to throw millions at a right-handed, glove-first infielder who a) can’t really hit left-handed pitching all that well and b) can’t hit right-handed pitching at all. While you almost assuredly mumbled under your breath ‘yeah, Ke’Bryan Hayes,’ that’s not even who we’re talking about today.
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Today, we dive into what’s become of Matt McLain.
The Reds doled out over $4.6 million to sign him after selecting him 17th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, and he’d accrued enough service time by 2026 – a huge chunk of it while rehabbing various injuries – to earn over $2.3 million in his first trip through the arbitration process. The Reds have given zero indication that they’re going to cut ties with him despite his struggles, so it sure looks like he’ll go through arbitration again this winter and earn a modest raise on that $2.3 million salary for 2027, too.
All that despite – you guessed it – being a guy who’s become a glove-first infielder who hits from the right-handed side but can’t hit righties (and barely hits lefties).
There have been 267 big leaguers who have logged at least 600 PA since the start of the 2025 season, and McLain is one of them. Hayes, as you’d predict, owns the single worst wRC+ of the bunch at just 49, but McLain’s lackluster performance with the bat checks in at 15th worst at just 74. The thing is, though, that McLain has actually accrued 1073 PA since the start of 2025, and that’s hundreds of PA more than every single one of the 14 players who rank below him on this list – that’s because those players hit so poorly that their managers saw fit to keep them out of the lineup more often.
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In fact, among the entire first page of that leaderboard (30 names), McLain is one of only two players with more than 1000 PA, the other being one of the best defensive catchers of his generation in JT Realmuto. Up the threshold then to 1000 PA and you’ll see McLain’s 74 wRC+ rank dead last among the 118 MLB players who you’d conceivably be able to call ‘regulars’ over the last two seasons, and Realmuto at 81 is the one ‘closest’ at 7 points clear.
If you aren’t yet a believer in wRC+, rest assured that McLain ranks last among those 118 in batting average (.204) and slugging percentage (.339), his .288 OBP ranking 2nd worst. Just about every way you look at the last two years, he’s been tangibly awful offensively.
To his credit is his work against LHP, which was at least within the realm of being serviceable in 2026. He hit .243/.347/.430 (.777 OPS) against them in 107 PA during the 2026 season, though that’s on the heels of hitting just .228/.328/.351 (.679 OPS) against them in 131 PA the season before. But if you look at his work against RHP over that same time, it begins to get a little ghastly.
154 MLB players logged at least 300 PA against RHP in 2026 alone, and McLain was one of them. He hit just .167/.249/.303 against them in 370 PA, and at this point you’ll be shockingly unsurprised to hear that he ranked dead last among the entire group in average, OBP, and wRC+ (52), his mark in slugging (3rd worst) within earshot of dead last.
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His one potential saving grace: his .216 BABIP against RHP last year was far and away the lowest among his peers. That’s despite his soft-hit rate (15.2%) ranking 60th out of those 154 players, his 31.4% hard-hit rate a ‘reasonable’ 122nd (ahead of the likes of Kyle Tucker, Alec Bohm, Nolan Arenado, and even Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez last season). So, there’s at least a chance there was some simply awful bad luck involved here, even if the extremely mediocre .217/.291/.341 (.632) OPS he posted against RHP in 2025 came on a more feasible .284 BABIP.
Not even Statcast offers a potentially hidden solution for McLain’s woes. Everything continues to point towards the obvious, which is that the shoulder and oblique problems that derailed his 2023 and cost him all of 2024 simply handed back a completely different hitter, and that completely different hitter looks woefully overmatched at the plate against big league velocity.
His glovework is good. His baserunning is good. He’s the type of player that – at a certain cost – can still provide enough service to a Major League Baseball team even at this level of production. It’s just that the way the Reds have put together their infield, they haven’t baked in a way to maximize that skillset at all.
At 3B, they have a player in Hayes who should never set foot in a batter’s box and only plays 3B. At 1B, in Sal Stewart, they have the guy that should be their 3B. At SS, they have the best hitting player on their team at the position that, typically, you can get away with a glove-only guy since shortstop is the place where plus defense gets to be played more often, but there’s no way in hell you’re moving Elly De La Cruz off short just to maximize McLain’s glove. So, McLain gets shoved over to 2B where he doesn’t hit nearly enough to warrant playing there each and every inning.
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Two infielders who should pretty much only be LIDRs and/or pinch-runners, neither of whom has enough experience to warrant being labeled as ‘potential outfielder in a pinch,’ either. Two players on the 26-man roster who you really don’t ever want to hit in any scenario. Two guys to whom the Reds will owe a combined $10 million to in 2027 who Cincinnati’s front office simply just can’t quit.
I wish I could make it make sense. Barring a miraculous turnaround in 2027, I think a third trip through the arbitration process might finally make it stop making sense for the frugal Reds, but that’s still one full year away.
