Who Might Have Won the Sprint Events at Past Olympic Games?
A week ago, the landscape of swimming changed forever. The International Olympic Committee’s announcement to include 50s of stroke at the 2028 Olympic Games flips the sport on its head, with three new sprint events for the world to focus on. With medals races potentially tighter than ever before, the new changes create some curiosity, including for the past.
What would it have looked like if these events were contested in the last three Olympics? Would it have changed swimming history? Today, we’ll have a little fun predicting the 50s of stroke at recent Olympics.
Note: Please remember this is an exercise purely for enjoyment. Feel free to agree and post your picks in the comments, but let’s keep the discussion respectful.
2016 Games – Rio de Janeiro
Women’s 50 Backstroke
Gold – Yuanhui Fu
Silver – Kylie Masse
Bronze – Emily Seebohm
Women’s 50 Breaststroke
Gold – Lilly King
Silver – Yuliya Efimova
Bronze – Katie Meili
Women’s 50 Butterfly
Gold – Sara Sjostrom
Silver – Lu Ying
Bronze – Dana Vollmer
In our fun-filled analysis, the women’s 50s in 2016 showcased the diversity of the era, with winners from three different countries. The 100 backstroke at this meet was separated by just 0.35 between first and fifth, suggesting the 50 back would have been supremely tight. We’ll give Fu the win here, though, with her pedigree as the seventh-fastest in the event of all-time.
Lilly King’s battle with Yuliya Efimova in the 100 breaststroke was a drama-filled encounter, so the 50 breaststroke would have featured nothing less. This would be one of the most anticipated races of the meet, a rematch in shorter form. I have King coming out on top again, as she is the third-fastest of all-time in the 50 to Efimova’s fifth.
After two tightly contested events, we have our first dominant performance. Sjostrom would have prevailed comfortably, as she is the fastest sprint butterflyer in history. With six consecutive world titles in the 50 butterfly, Sjostrom doesn’t know a rival in the event.
Men’s 50 Backstroke
Gold – Ryan Murphy
Silver – Mitch Larkin
Bronze – Xu Jiayu
Men’s 50 Breaststroke
Gold – Adam Peaty
Silver – Cameron Van der Burgh
Bronze – Kevin Cordes
Men’s 50 Butterfly
Gold – Florent Manaudou
Silver – Nicholas Santos
Bronze – Joseph Schooling
The 50 back would have been another opportunity for one of the all-time best to shine. Ryan Murphy, 10th all-time in the event, was in peak form in Rio and could have extended his backstroke talent to the shorter event.
Just like in the 100 breast, when Adam Peaty unseated reigning Olympic champion Cameron van der Burgh, the 50 breaststroke would have produced the same finish. The best sprint breaststroker of all-time would have added to his gold medal collection.
Florent Manadou would have collected his second medal of the Games after finishing with a silver in the 50 freestyle. The Frenchman is one of the great pure sprinters in history and the option of 50 strokes at the Olympics would have paid dividends.
2020 Games – Tokyo
Women’s 50 Backstroke
Gold – Kylie Masse
Silver – Kaylee Mckeown
Bronze – Regan Smith
Women’s 50 Breaststroke
Gold – Lilly King
Silver – Lydia Jacoby
Bronze – Tatjana Smith
Women’s 50 Butterfly
Gold – Sarah Sjostrom
Silver – Zhang Yufei
Bronze – Maggie Mac Neil
After just missing out in 2016, the Canadian Kylie Masse would have won four years later. Call it a hunch that she would flash her best speed, with Kaylee Mckeown and Regan Smith touching for silver and bronze.
Despite finishing in the bronze-medal spot in the 100 breaststroke, Lilly King’s pure speed would have been too much for the field in the 50 breast. It was Lydia Jacoby’s back half that allowed her to surpass King in the 100 distance. Well-rounded Tatjana Smith would have won bronze.
Although an elbow injury slowed Sarah Sjostrom ahead of Tokyo, she would have defended her 50 fly crown from Rio. Even not at her best in fly, Sjostrom owns a huge cushion over the opposition over 50 meters.
Men’s 50 Backstroke
Gold – Kliment Kolesnikov
Silver – Thomas Ceccon
Bronze – Xu Jiayu
Men’s 50 Breaststroke
Gold – Adam Peaty
Silver – Nicolo Martineghi
Bronze – Ilya Shyamanovitch
Men’s 50 Butterfly
Gold – Caeleb Dressel
Silver – Noe Ponti
Bronze – Nicholas Santos
Kliment Kolesnikov was just shy of winning gold in Tokyo in the 100 backstroke and the 50 distance is his better event, so a title makes sense. Meanwhile, Thomas Ceccon possesses impressive raw speed which would have yielded the silver medal, ahead of China’s Xu Jiayu.
Adam Peaty would have been a repeat gold medalist, his track record speaking for itself. The interesting addition is Belarus’ Ilya Shymanovich for the bronze medal. Shymanovich is known for his speed and while he is better suited for the short-course pool, a medal would have been attainable.
Caeleb Dressel was at his peak in Tokyo, and would have parlayed the excellence he displayed into a fourth individual gold medal. Grabbing the other positions on the podium would have been men better suited to the sprint distance, including veteran Nicholas Santos from Brazil.
2024 Games – Paris
Women’s 50 Backstroke
Gold – Kaylee McKeown
Silver – Regan Smith
Bronze – Katharine Berkoff
Women’s 50 Breaststroke
Gold – Tang Qianting
Silver – Lilly King
Bronze – Ruta Meilutyte
Women’s 50 Butterfly
Gold – Sarah Sjostrom
Silver – Gretchen Walsh
Bronze – Torri Huske
Kaylee McKeown was on an absolute role in Paris and had she had the chance at the 50 backstroke, she would have pulled off a backstroke sweep – something she’s done at the World Championships. Regan Smith would have earned a medal in all three backstrokes and Katharine Berkoff’s speed is fit for the 50 distance.
China’s Tang Qianting is the fourth-fastest all time in the event, and might be on the best trajectory of any breaststroker in the world. While we have King adding another Olympic medal, a nod goes to Lithuania’s Ruta Meilutyte for the bronze medal.
Sarah Sjostrom stirred the world in Paris, besting stacked fields in the 50 and 100 free at the age of 31. A 50 butterfly title would also have been captured, with the Swede facing off with young American talents in Huske and Walsh. As noted earlier, Sjostrom’s 50 fly achievements are other-worldly.
Men’s 50 Backstroke
Gold – Thomas Ceccon
Silver – Xu Jiayu
Bronze – Ryan Murphy
Men’s 50 Breaststroke
Gold – Adam Peaty
Silver – Qin Haiyang
Bronze – Nic Fink
Men’s 50 Butterfly
Gold – Noe Ponti
Silver – Maxime Grousset
Bronze – Caeleb Dressel
Italian Thomas Ceccon was the gold medalist in the 100 backstroke in Paris, and as an accomplished one-lap star in both the backstroke and butterfly, a title in the 50 backstroke seems plausible.
Adam Peaty just missed gold in the 100 breaststroke, but he wouldn’t have been denied in the 50 breaststroke, where his dominance is overwhelming. Despite a disappointing meet in Paris, Qin Haiyang is still picked to take the silver medal, with American Nic Fink right on his heels.
Noe Ponti would have been front and center here. The Swiss swimmer’s sprint skills are inarguable, but he would have been tested by Maxime Grousset, whose a proven sprinter in freestyle and fly. Caeleb Dressel is the choice for bronze based on his career work.
