The Tour de France is for many the most special race in cycling. Everyone would love to win it, but only a select few ever will. However, for every one chance to take a career-defining overall victory, there are 21 chances to take a career-defining stage win – and that particular tombola is open to all comers.
In theory, anyone can win a Tour stage and the plaudits are occasionally taken by little known riders whose job was getting sponsor airtime in a break that managed to go all the way to the finish.
But that doesn’t mean that stage victories don’t attract a certain type of rider with certain attributes. A healthy indifference to the general classification, for example, means that GC teams will let them take off as part of a breakaway. And a strong finish is all but essential – after all, you need to outgun your breakaway companions, even if you’re not really the sprinting type.
The only exception to this is the possession of the kind of big time trialling engine that allows you to take off alone and go the distance, whether that’s over 5km or 25km, on the flat or uphill.
Let’s take a look at some of the men most likely in this year’s race.
Sprinters
Jonathan Milan
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Lidl-Trek | Ita | 24
Previous Tour starts: 0
Best GC result: n/a
Best stage result: n/a
Having imposed his considerable stature and sprinting ability upon the Giro d’Italia to great effect, Italy’s affable Jonathan Milan now takes his trade to the Tour de France for the first time.
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It’s not unfair to suggest he will encounter a deeper pool of strong rivals at the Tour than he has come up against in the Giro – where he has won two points classifications out of two so far.
However, he skipped his home tour this year in favour of the French race, swapping roles with fast-finishing team-mate Mads Pedersen, who is usually seen at the Tour but this year raced the Giro.
The Dane, who has two Tour stage wins in his palmarès, gave Milan’s Tour participation his blessing, saying: “For me he is one of, if not the, best sprinters in the world, so of course, he should go to the Tour.”
Milan’s Tour prep has been going pretty well so far, with seven victories this year, including one at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné Tour warm-up race.
Jasper Philipsen
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Alpecin-Deceuninck | Bel | 27
Previous Tour starts: 5
Best GC result: 91st
Best stage result: 1st (x9)
Once tagged ‘Jasper Disaster’ due to the bad luck that seemed to follow him around, Philipsen is now considered one of the world’s best sprinters and a pretty much nailed-on bet for at least one stage win at the Tour de France.
So dominant was he at the 2023 Tour – four stages and the green jersey to boot – that it looked as though he might have things all his own way. But last year, while he still won three stages, he was taken to task by Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and lost out in the green jersey contest.
Philipsen recently criticised his portrayal in the new Netflix season of Unchained as “sensational”, but it doesn’t seem to have put him off – he will be back to try and reclaim green from Girmay, who is set to be there too.
He has had a moderately successful season so far, with wins at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and the Baloise Tour of Belgium, plus plenty of podiums. It’s not quite the six-win early-season we saw from him in 2023 though, so we shall see what happens in France.
Tim Merlier
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Soudal Quick-Step | Bel | 32
Previous Tour starts: 1
Best GC result: DNF
Best stage result: 1st
Merlier is a proven Grand Tour stage winner, with five victories in his palmarès, including one at the Tour back in 2021.
With a hat-trick of those wins coming at last year’s Giro d’Italia, Merlier can still challenge at the highest level and will be a danger in the bunch sprints at this month’s Tour.
With 10 wins this year, Merlier arrives in Lille as the winningest sprinter in this small round-up by some stretch. But as it is often said, ‘the Tour’s the Tour’ – few other stages come close, so it’s wise not to draw too many conclusions at this point.
With Merlier’s Soudal Quick-Step team prioritising its focus Remco Evenepoel’s GC ride, he may have to fend for himself more than some of his fast-finishing rivals.
But racing nous, as well as the unpredictability of the bunch finishes, could well see him come away with a stage.
Biniam Girmay
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Intermarché-Wanty | Eri | 25
Previous Tour starts: 2
Best GC result: 113th
Best stage result: 1st (x3)
After last year’s historic Tour performance, who can blame Biniam Girmay for coming back for another bite of the cherry? It was on stage three to Turin, while the Tour was still in Italy, that the Eritrean became the first black African to win a stage in the history of the race.
His Belgian team have more than simply stage-win glory on their minds too, as their lowly 16th place in the WorldTour’s three-year rankings puts them perilously close to the relegation zone. A repeat performance by Girmay would give them a huge boost on the points scale.
So far this year, despite coming close several times, with five second places, Girmay has yet to win a race. None of those seconds were in WorldTour races either, with his runner-up spot at the Classique Dunkerque garnering him the most points.
Contrast that to last year’s early season, which saw him win five times, again in smaller races, though he raced on seven more days than this year.
Nevertheless, Intermarché’s Tour squad has been constructed, they say, “resolutely with stage wins in mind”, and says Girmay is “naturally our spearhead for sprints and tricky stage finals”.
Stage hunters
Wout van Aert
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Visma-Lease a Bike | Bel | 30
Previous Tour starts: 6
Best GC result: 19th
Best stage result: 1st (x9)
Wout van Aert’s 19th place on GC in 2021 is testament to the fact that he is very good at just about everything. The fact he lags behind a little in the mountains compared to riders like Tadej Pogačar and his own team-mate Jonas Vingegaard means that personal success for Van Aert in the Tour is going to come from stage, rather than GC glory.
Van Aert began his road career as a renowned bunch sprinter, but he has become far more besides, including a super-domestique for Vingegaard. He’ll still contest the sprints though, and on his day he can still trouble the fastest in the bunch.
On the mountain stages he generally has his hands full shepherding Vingegaard, so any stage win for Van Aert is most likely to come during the lumpy, attritional stages that mimic his favoured Classics terrain, probably from the break.
2021 was the perfect demonstration of Van Aert’s all-round ability and stage-winning nous: he won a time trial stage, a mountains stage over Mont Ventoux no less, and the final prestigious Champs-Elysées sprint stage in Paris.
Mathieu van der Poel
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Alpecin-Deceuninck | Ned | 30
Previous Tour starts: 4
Best GC result: 57th
Best stage result: 1st
On paper, Mathieu van der Poel is one of the strongest riders and most capable stage winners in the Tour de France. But his single stage win in four Tour appearances (the second stage of his first Tour, in fact, back in 2021) is a reflection of the fact that each July he dedicates himself to the cause of sprinting team-mate Jasper Philipsen.
Personal glory takes a back seat as he takes on tasks such as pulling on the front of the bunch and, ultimately, being Philipsen’s last man in the leadout, often to great effect.
However, if the opportunity does arise, ‘VDP’ would no doubt be more than happy to add another stage to his Grand Tour palmarès. Look out for him on this year’s final stage which, for one night only, takes the riders over the Côte de la Butte Montmartre to celebrate the race’s 50th anniversary of finishing on the Champs-Elysées.
It’s perfect territory for Van der Poel and would be a prestigious stage to win.
Oscar Onley
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Picnic PostNL | GBR | 22
Previous Tour starts: 1
Best GC result: 39th
Best stage result: 5th
A young Brit who has been steadily carving out a path towards the spotlight as his results continue to improve. A fine climber, Onley will be head up the Dutch team’s stage-hunting ambitions in the hilly and mountainous days.
His preparation looks to have been on point, confirmed by third place overall at the recent Tour de Suisse – a prestigious warm-up event for the Tour de France. He was also second in the youth and points classifications and fourth in the mountains contest.
“Our main goal for the race will be to hunt for stage success,” said Picnic PostNL upon announcing their Tour team. “Oscar showed recently at the Tour de Suisse that he is in great shape with some top results, so he will be one of our main finishing cards to play for the hilly and mountainous days.”
Onley won stage five of the eight-stage race – his only win so far this year – in an uphill sprint with eventual GC victor Joāo Almeida, and said it had given him a boost that he would take into the Tour de France.
This will be his second Tour, and he knows what it’s like at the sharp end there – a fifth place on the Superdévoluy mountain stage last year garnered him a fair bit of attention. He has improved since then and is likely to be vying for victory, perhaps from the breakaways, again.
Quinn Simmons
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Lidl-Trek | USA | 24
Previous Tour starts: 2
Best GC result: 66th
Best stage result: 11th
With the stars and stripes of his new national champion’s jersey spurring him on, Simmons has the ability to go home with a first stage win at the Tour de France.
The team describe him as their “dedicated puller” for the race, riding in the service of sprinter Jonathan Milan.
But the sprint opportunities are limited, and on the lumpier stages where the opportunity to infiltrate a breakaway presents itself, Simmons could well find himself vying for stage victory.
The 24-year-old has already won on three occasions this season, including once with the new national champion’s jersey on his back at the Tour de Suisse. The other was a lumpy stage in the early-season Volta Catalunya
It would be a first Grand Tour victory for the Durango, Colorado rider, who had his closest brush with stage honours at the Vuelta a España in 2021.
That was the first three-week race he ever rode, the only others being the 2022 and 2023 Tours de France. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the opportunities this month, two years on.
Others to watch
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Riders like Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel suffer the disadvantage of being marked men in the hunt for stages – while also having significant team duties to perform. This means the door is often left open to riders on smaller teams to infiltrate the breaks free of such shackles.
Those to look out for include Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) for the hilly stages, whose effervescent style has yet to earn him a Tour stage but ought to eventually.
Elsewhere, home rider Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) has had a superb Tour de Suisse, winning the young rider classification and placing top-five in six out of eight stages. He may have one eye on the Tour’s GC, but should also be regarded as a sufficiently low threat to be allowed in the mountain breaks, where he could potentially add to the stage win he took last year.
Britain’s Lewis Askey (Groupama-FDJ) will be riding his first Tour de France this year, and will be coming in off the back of his first two professional wins. If he can make it into the breakaway, his fast finish could net him the biggest win of all.
Over at Bahrain Victorious, both Fred Wright and Lenny Martinez could challenge for stage victories too, although at opposite ends of the terrain spectrum. Martinez, winner of the Queen stage of the Critérium du Dauphiné, excels in the mountains and Wright on the lumpy, attritional days.
