The Big Ten hasn’t won an NCAA men’s basketball championship since 2000. But they have a more teams alive than anyone else going into the Sweet 16.
The Big Ten had a great opening weekend of the NCAA tournament. Six teams advanced to the Sweet 16, which is a record for the conference. That included Iowa after its massive upset of No. 1 seed Florida on Sunday. Michigan, Illinois and Purdue are all among the top six teams in the odds to win the NCAA tournament, with Michigan as the favorite to win it all. The Big Ten as a whole is still in great shape heading into the second weekend.
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Here are the picks for the Sweet 16, with all odds from BetMGM:
Purdue (-7.5) over Texas
The Texas Longhorns, with an athletic department that makes more than $330 million in revenue, are the Cinderellas of the 2026 NCAA tournament. And people have the audacity to complain that the tournament has become too chalky.
Texas is the lowest-ranked team left in the tournament at KenPom.com, but it isn’t a normal No. 11 seed either. Texas has nine Quad 1 wins this season. The Longhorns struggled late in the regular season and had a bad loss to Ole Miss in its first SEC tournament game, but they have turned it on in the tournament starting with a First Four win. Still, the problem is their defense against Purdue’s No. 1 ranked offense at KenPom. Texas’s defense was outside of the top 80. It has been a nice run for Texas, but it’s probably coming to an end against a Boilermakers team that got hot at the right time.
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI – MARCH 22: Jack Benter #14 and Braden Smith #3 of the Purdue Boilermakers react against the Miami Hurricanes during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
(Jamie Squire via Getty Images)
Iowa (+1.5) over Nebraska
This will feel more like a Big Ten tournament game when it tips off, not a Sweet 16 game. Nebraska, as everyone knows, had never won an NCAA tournament game before this year. Iowa hadn’t been to the Sweet 16 this century. The two teams met twice this season, with Iowa winning by five at home then losing in overtime at Nebraska. Iowa’s win over Florida was the most shocking result in another mostly chalky tournament, and the Hawkeyes have played well late in the season. Since Feb. 25 they’re 4-4 but the four losses were by 2, 3, 9 (in overtime) and 3. Iowa’s plan to beat Florida has given coach Ben McCollum some well-earned credit for his Xs and Os. Nebraska has had a great season but let’s go with Iowa to keep its hot streak going.
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Arkansas (+8.5) over Arizona
Arizona is impressive. They covered both games in the tournament’s opening weekend, and still their only two losses are at Kansas and in overtime against Texas Tech. But Arkansas doesn’t lack talent, particularly with future NBA lottery pick Darius Acuff Jr. at guard. The Razorbacks have good size as well. Any team with one of the best players in the sport and top-five offense, which Arkansas has, has a shot to keep a tournament game within a large spread. Even against a team that might be the best in college basketball this season.
Illinois (+3.5) over Houston
This might be the best matchup of the Sweet 16. The Illini were in the running for a No. 2 seed but four overtime losses ended that. Houston earned its No. 2 seed and is one of the best programs in the sport. The Cougars are coming off back-to-back 31-point wins to start the tournament, reminding everyone they can win it all. The matchup comes down to Illinois’ offense (No. 2 at KenPom) vs. Houston’s defense (No. 4 at KenPom). Illinois is on the same tier as Houston, so the spread seems a little high for what should be an evenly matched game.
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St. John’s (+6.5) over Duke
Duke got through the first weekend, blowing out TCU after a scare against No. 16 seed Siena, but the Blue Devils are still dealing with injuries. Big man Patrick Ngongba returned in the second round but played just 13 minutes. Guard Caleb Foster didn’t play in the first weekend and while Duke is maintaining optimism he can return from a fractured foot, he likely wouldn’t be 100% even if he does play. Duke is a tremendous team and could cover this spread even with two starters dealing with injuries, but it gives a St. John’s team that has won 21 of 22 games a better shot to keep it close.
Michigan (-10.5) over Alabama
When Alabama’s shots are falling, the Crimson Tide is capable of performances like its 25-point win on Sunday against a good Texas Tech team. We also know Michigan is capable of blowing out anyone. Alabama had some trouble with some teams on Michigan’s tier. It lost to No. 1 seeds Arizona by 21 and to Florida by 23. It’s scary to go against a team that can score as quickly as Alabama, but Michigan is impressive.
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Michigan State (+1.5) over UConn
UConn pulled away from UCLA in the second round, but the Huskies still don’t look as good as they did earlier in the season. Guard Solo Ball in particular is in a bad shooting slump; he was scoreless against UCLA. Deep tournament runs by Michigan State is a staple of March, and this Spartans team has a star point guard in Jeremy Fears. The Big Ten is having a great tournament, and that might continue with the Spartans moving on.
Tennessee (+4.5) over Iowa State
The status of Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson, who injured his ankle in the first round, is huge. The Cyclones didn’t miss Jefferson in their second-round blowout of Kentucky, but missing a player who ranks second in the KenPom.com national player of the year rankings is hard to keep overcoming. Tennessee was up and down this season but looked good during the first weekend of the tournament. If Jefferson can’t play, or if he’s significantly limited, the Volunteers won’t get blown out like Kentucky did.
