The Pittsburgh Pirates and their ace Paul Skenes are in the midst of an all-time bad string of losses as after Saturday’s contest against the Colorado Rockies the club dropped their seventh straight with Skenes on the mound.
Skenes has been the center of criticism in this stretch with many questioning if he’s slipping in his third big league season. Many have cited his velocity being down, as his four-seamer averaged 98.8 mph as a rookie and 98.2 last season. This season Skenes is averaging 97 mph on his fastball. So there certainly has been a downtick, but the third year pitcher believes that he’s pitching better overall than he has in years past.
“I don’t think I’m necessarily the same pitcher I was my rookie year and last year,” Skenes said. “I do think I’m throwing better. I’m very happy with how I’ve been throwing. I think I’ve evolved. If you’re not getting better in this game, you’re getting worse. I feel I’m better than I was last year. I think there are some numbers that show that; others don’t. But the gut feeling is I’m better.”
In this stretch of losses Skenes certainly has not been dominating opposing hitters the way that fans have grown accustomed to, especially the third time through a lineup where his efficiency starts to slip severely. The commentary team during Skenes’ outing against the Houston Astros suggested that team’s game plans for trying to hit against Skenes could also be why the righty has struggled lately. When Skenes is on the mound, no matter what the count may be, batters are instantly going into protect mode. By taking this approach at the plate the opposing offense is effectively playing a game of attrition. In a batter’s first and sometimes even second time at the plate they’re not necessarily looking for base hits first as much as they’re looking to wear Skenes down by making it longer at bats, where they’re getting six or more pitches.
Skenes stylistically already racks up a lot of pitches because of the swing and miss work that he implements into his game. That aggressive style compounded with batters looking to draw out long at bats has Skenes getting into high pitch counts early and often. In his last five starts Skenes has thrown 103+ pitches in each contest and gave up two earned runs in each but one of those last five outings. Aside from his games against Philadelphia and Toronto in the last seven starts, Skenes has been fairly efficient in not giving up a lot of runs, but he is certainly being pushed to his limits on the mound.
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The team as a whole has largely not been great at supporting Skenes when he’s on the mound. The team’s offense is often dormant in these matchups, and the lack of run support has not helped. Against Philly on May, 17 the Pirates scored zero runs. Against Toronto on May, 23 the Pirates scored two runs and repeated the same low on May, 28 against the Cubs. In Skenes’ start against the Astros the Pirates did a decent job on offense by scoring nine runs, but lost the lead once Skenes came out of the game. Against Houston Skenes gave up one earned run, and three runs were scored during his time on the mound, but the Pirates lost 11-9, so that one is on the bullpen which is it’s own disaster zone right now. This trend of no offense continued in Skenes’ starts against the Dodgers, Marlins and Rockies.
Don Kelly seems to always field the worst possible lineup on nights that Skenes pitches, which isn’t helping matters either. Ryan O’Hearn is regularly missing from the lineup, while poor performers like Marcell Ozuna and Jared Triolo are consistently getting at bats. Henry Davis always catches for Skenes and he is mostly an offensive liability as well. The amount of prospects and random call ups that are on the field for Skenes starts is laughable too. While Skenes has had his own fair share of struggles this season, it’s fair to say that the best product is not always being put on the field to support him either.
Defensively the Pirates are not nearly as sound this year as they were last year either. O’Hearn is being asked to play mostly outside of his natural position, and there have been some shortcomings with him in right field. Oneil Cruz is still not a great defender in center field and to this point has not been able to make the out of the ordinary plays that a Gold Glove defender is capable of. The rotating cast in the outfield has not helped either, and the right side of the infield is average at best but certainly not great.
All things considered it could be a lot worst, as Skenes is still statistically right up there with the best pitchers in baseball, but there’s definitely a different feel around him and his most recent starts. Still though his Pirates’ teammates are confident in his abilities with Brandon Lowe saying he’s still pitching incredibly.
“That’s one of the things that everybody in baseball has been clouded by: how great Paul has been in his first two years,” Lowe said. “When you can look at a guy who has a (2.85) ERA, and the media says he’s having a down year … it’s pretty incredible, the numbers he’s been able to put up and what he’s been able to do, for people to question his ability at this point in the season.”
Some have also pointed to Skenes’ involvement in the World Baseball Classic and the hangover period that many players from the tournament have experienced, but Skenes stands by his conditioning and the work he continues to put in, and is not concerned by a perceived slip or downtick in velocity on his pitches.
“I mean, you can still blow it by them with 97 compared to 98,” Skenes said. “I’m feeling better after starts compared to the last couple years. If it weren’t for a couple short outings, I’d have more innings under my belt. I’m conditioned to throw more innings than I have been throwing.”
Kelly echoes his confidence in the work that Skenes does to keep his body in top shape during the season.
“I think we are trying to keep it in perspective,” Kelly said. “I think Paul has still done that, given us a chance to win, even though he hasn’t been maybe at the exceptional level he has been all of his career. He’s had stretches where he hasn’t been like that throughout the last two years. I think the one thing that we do know: The preparation, the work ethic, the man and how he goes about it, he’s always going to give everything he’s got.”
Skenes is scheduled to start against the Cincinnati Reds in a three game home stand following the team’s next series against the Seattle Mariners.
