I keep thinking about all the teams that don’t seem to have improved much if at all from last season. Detroit. Boston. Cleveland. Denver. Minnesota. What a weird Pangea of inertia.
Then again, some teams have actually made moves. Some are better for having made those moves. Here are the handful of biggest threats to the Knicks repeating as champions in June 2027, as of July 2026.
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TORONTO/PHILADELPHIA
The Raptors and Sixers had essentially the same offseason, in that you can view them however you like and come up with completely polar opinions on both.
On the one hand, Toronto traded a hill of beans for one of the greatest players this century, who last year put up 28 points a game on 51/39/89 shooting. Worried about durability? Kawhi Leonard played over 2000 minutes last season, just the second time he’s done so since leaving Toronto for L.A. seven years ago, though that was the second in three years. And he fits a perfect position of need.
You might have missed it what with all the Mario Hezonja buzz of late, but for $8 million the 76ers signed the greatest player this century, who last year put up 21 points, six rebounds and seven dimes on 52% shooting. Worried about age? Last season LeBron James fell 11 minutes short of 2000, a mark he’s failed to reach only four times in 23 seasons. And he fits a perfect position of need.
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On the one other hand, the last time Leonard and James were legit Larry O’Brien influencers, we’d never heard of COVID. The president being senile was a concern. It was a different world, a simpler time. And recent times don’t necessarily suggest better days ahead for either player’s new team.
Since leaving Canada for the Clippers, Leonard has played in one playoff series his team won, two they lost, two he missed parts of and three he missed altogether. Since leading the Lakers to the Bubble ‘chip, LeBron’s team won three of eight playoff series, beating a Memphis team led by two 23-year-olds, a Warriors side that started five 30-year-olds that series and a Houston team a year ago without Kevin Durant for five of the six games.
If there’s one NBA player with a seeming fix on who “is him” and who isn’t, it’s Scottie Barnes. And while Barnes is a great number of wonderful things on the 94×50, one thing he is not is “him.”
I figure he figured out pretty quick last year that Brandon Ingram is good enough at basketball to make the kind of money where his grandchildren will never buy store-brand ice cream sandwiches, but not good enough to be “him,” either. Whenever the NBA thinks enough time’s passed that we’ve forgotten the scandal finalizes the Aspiration investigation, assuming Leonard is a Raptor, he is most definitely a him-type. Kawhi would also make the Raptors a hydra-headed beast defensively. How many teams have the firepower to test Leonard and Barnes and Collin Murray-Bowles and Immanuel Quickley? With Jakob Poeltl the back line of defense?
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But do the Raptors have enough 3-point shooting? Leonard is a better shooter than Ingram *when healthy*, which is sorta the rub. Ingram and Sandro Mamukelashvili were Toronto’s two best high-volume snipers from distance. Can third-year man Ja’Kobe Walter — 41% on moderate volume last year — level up his attempts without losing too much of his accuracy?
Do the Sixers have enough 3-point shooting? Lost amidst all the understandable elation of turning Paul George and Kelly Oubre into Lebron and Jaylen Brown is that while Philly is bigger and more athletic at the forward spots, they look to have taken a step back in their perimeter game. George and Oubre combined to make 186 of 494 3-point tries last year (37.6%); Brown and James were 217 of 647 (33.5%).
Both of these teams probably improved from last year to next. But neither feels like a realistic Finals threat.
HOUSTON
I have Houston here instead of Denver for one reason. And it isn’t Kevin Durant, who back in 2019 I thought was a foolish bet to continue his annual high level of play into his early 30s. All KD’s done since is carry it into his mid- and now late-30s.
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It’s that the Rockets can reasonably hope that a year with instead of without Fred VanVleet, plus growth from any of Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, paired with the perpetual greatness machine that is Durant, means a higher ceiling in 2027, maybe even one that sends them soaring above the last two Western champs. Whereas the Nuggets can reasonably hope that the next time they win a title in 15-25 years, it’s under new ownership that actually feels up for a title defense.
Admittedly, I think Houston is more than a little behind the Spurs and Thunder. But there’s enough “if it all goes right” there to think that if it does, it might be enough to send them to their first Finals since 1995.
INDIANA
Like Charlie Brown lining up for the kick, so many seemingly can’t wait to overlook and underrate the Pacers yet again. What is wrong with you people?
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It wasn’t all that long ago that Tyrese Haliburton and not Jalen Brunson was the Eastern guard living a charmed life while leading his team to one inspiring, improbable win after another. Obviously Knicks’ fans biggest fear last season was that Indiana would land a top lottery pick in their gap year, draft a stud and come back even more frightening than the group that knocked off the Knickerbockers in 2024 and 2025.
Instead, they gambled and lost that pick in the Ivica Zubac trade. Props to the Pacers for adding a sneaky-good center who’s an elite rebounder (which Myles Turner was not). I’m a bit confused by that center not now or ever being able to space and shoot as a five-out center (which Myles Turner was). I think Roy Hibbert must have been the last Indiana big I remember who couldn’t shoot. Knicks fans saw how much the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns’ as a shooter and spacer unlocked all kinds of options for their offense. Haliburton is a brilliant playmaker who’ll now have to negotiate what would figure to be less room with Zubac firmly inside the arc.
Still, Indy has Haliburton. And Zubac. And Pascal Siakam. And Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell and Obi. Oubre and Larry Nance Jr. are solid additions. It’s the Pacers. It’s the Knicks. You know.
OKLAHOMA CITY
This isn’t a huge deal. It’s a crack, is all. But sometimes a crack is enough. Just knowing a seemingly invincible foe is in fact vincible can create the kind of confidence that brings down mountains.
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The Thunder are still awesome. Maybe still the title favorites, even. The Spurs barely snuck past them, even with Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell out hurt. OKC’s beaten New York six straight times and seven outta eight; last time the Knicks beat the Thunder RJ Barrett, Quentin Grimes and Jericho Sims suited up. Coming up short a year ago doesn’t mean Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren suddenly forget how to ball.
But OKC traded Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe for the Leon Rose Blue Plate Special — second-rounds picks in perpetuity. They’re still young. They’re still deep. They’re still awesome. Only not quite as young. Or deep. Or awesome. And after their destruction of the league in 2025 and into last year’s Western conference finals, there are now teams in both San Antonio and New York who see themselves as the title favorites.
The Thunder are still most of all the good things they were a year ago. Just not the defending champs, and not the consensus favorite. That either means nothing or something. We’ll know in ten months.
SAN ANTONIO
The Spurs have reason after reason after reason to see themselves as next in line to win the championship. You already know most of them. So I’m gonna pivot and point out the biggest reason to doubt the Spurs even make it back to the Finals. Pro’ly the biggest reason, if they never do win it all with this group, why they didn’t.
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The Thunder. Duh.
These Spurs remind me of the Magic back in the day, when a young Shaq was anointed the heir apparent to His Airness. After leading Orlando to the Finals in only his second season, winning their first of several titles was unquestionably a matter of when and not if. But a funny thing happened on the way to immortality. That lot not only never won, they never made it back to the Finals. Know any other generational bigs who got to the Finals in year two, only to lose a heartbreaker at home early en route to getting gentlemanly swept? It wasn’t the team they lost to in the Finals that did them in; it was a conference rival they beat once and never again.
There’s a narrative forming about Victor Wembanyama’s work ethic and drive that could be true, but that also feels like marketing. I’m inclined to think Wemby works harder than Shaq did, even though I can’t possibly know that. There are stereotypes at play there. I must work to reject them.
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The Spurs acted like Susan Lucci finally winning an Emmy when they beat a shorthanded Thunder squad in the WCF. Victor and the victors were entitled to that; there is no ugly crying when you win. But I have a feeling the Thunder haven’t forgotten. And that they watched the Finals and learned some things from the Knicks they’ll put their own wrinkle on in next year’s meetings with San Antonio.
This isn’t an Xs-and-Os argument for what OKC may have in store. I just think will is a helluva variable to try and plug into an equation. I suspect the Thunder are as driven to take down the Spurs as they are to lift themselves back up to the Association’s apex. I still think the Spurs are the biggest threat to the Knicks. But while New York are the defending champs, it’s the runners-up who may have the biggest target on their backs next year.
