At the start of every NBA season, we — fans, media, people in and around the league — go in certain we know how things are going to play out. A year ago, the Thunder were the clear favorites to repeat, and the young Spurs were barely going to make the playoffs, and it looked like Cleveland might be due in the East. None of that played out quite as expected.
This season, again it feels like there are clear favorites, and again we’re likely going to be wrong. To get a bigger picture, we have invited a bunch of NBA writers from around NBCSports.com to answer a few questions and make their picks for the upcoming NBA season. We can’t all be wrong… can we?
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The defending champion New York Knicks are largely running it back and return the most complete roster in the East. They will set the bar, but if one team is going to rise up and beat them, which one will it be?
Kurt Helin, NBC lead NBA writer: I don’t fully trust anybody in the East, but for the purposes of this question I’ll take the Philadelphia 76ers here. Begrudgingly. Obviously, the question with Philly isn’t the talent: Jaylen Brown and Tyrese Maxey are All-NBA-level players, LeBron is still a top-20ish player in the league at age 41, and Joel Embiid can be a force when healthy. I don’t even believe the question is how it will all fit together, I think there are a lot of high IQ guys in Philly who will sacrifice and make it work. The question is simply health, specifically Embiid’s health in the playoffs. If the 76ers can pull it all together, they are the biggest threat to the Knicks.
Raphielle Johnson, NBC Sports Fantasy basketball lead analyst: I hate to be boring, but it’s Philadelphia. The additions of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown were huge, but the overall rotation should be loaded. Beyond the starters, guys like Anfernee Simons, Dean Wade and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can provide needed depth off the bench. The 76ers’ issue is the center position, especially if Joel Embiid’s availability remains in question. Ariel Hukporti is out for the season with a torn Achilles, and Adem Bona hasn’t played in the preseason with a sprained foot. Philadelphia, especially if they can improve their center depth at some point, would be my pick to come out of the East if it isn’t New York.
Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports betting analyst: Right now I have a narrow gap for the top two in the East between New York and the Boston Celtics; they both rate as approximately +8.0 (points vs average on a neutral) and I actually have fewer questions and see more upside potential with Boston. The full return of Jayson Tatum remains underappreciated by the market and I think they did a nice job building complementary pieces around him to have a more complete team for the playoffs this spring. They are also extremely well coached and have a deep bench so it is more likely they will be a Top 3 seed than some of the other boom-or-bust contenders in the East. There is one other potential sleeper in the East I have my eye on that we cover below.
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Eric Samulski, NBC Sports content creator: Everybody is likely going to pivot to the 76ers, and there are valid reasons for that, but I’m going in another direction. The Cavaliers have been putting themselves in a good spot to take the Eastern Conference crown and simply been unable to do it. We know they have the high-end talent in Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, but the team never quite delivers when they need to. I loved the addition of Peyton Watson as a two-way piece on the wing, and Jaylon Tyson got tons of experience last year and could use that to become a legit bench weapon for the Cavs.
Out West, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are the juggernauts and the obvious teams to beat. Is there a team that can rise up and challenge them? If so, who will it be?
Helin: If we’re being honest, as long as OKC and San Antonio are healthy, I don’t think anyone else in the West can beat them. But if I am picking a team, it’s the Houston Rockets. This was a 52-win team with a top-10 offense and defense last season, but they struggled mightily in the clutch (-8.8 net rating). Getting Fred VanVleet back as a floor general will change that. This team still has Kevin Durant to get a bucket when they need it, has plenty of athletes like Amen Thompson, good defenders to match up with teams, and a do-it-all big on offense in Alperen Sengun. You can make a case for the Lakers, Timberwolves or Nuggets to be this team, but I think Houston is the class of them and can threaten the Thunder and Spurs (as much as any team can).
Johnson: I really like Minnesota. Yes, LaMelo Ball has yet to play an official playoff game, but the Timberwolves have the talent and experience to compensate for that. Not only does his addition make Minnesota more dynamic on the perimeter, but Ball should also help with the team’s vibe. They’ve won at least one playoff series each of the last two seasons, and Anthony Edwards may have the perimeter sidekick he needs to take another step in his development.
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Dinsick: Probably not (the gap between the top 2 and the pack is staggering), but if there is a surprise it will likely be the Minnesota Timberwolves. This is a really fascinating team build with a ton of options for offensive creation and a high floor defense anchored by Gobert. They could also implode in spectacular fashion but I’m very intrigued to see a starting backcourt of Ant and Ball in a best-of-seven playoff series against the monsters in the West.
Samulski: The Nuggets will always be an option because they did it before and still have Nikola Jokic. However, my pick is the Houston Rockets. If you’re going to take down the Thunder or Spurs, which is a long shot, then you need somebody who can score with any player on the court, and Kevin Durant can do that. You also need athletic or strong big men like Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Steven Adams. Marcus Smart is another rugged defender off the bench, and the Rockets will now have Fred VanVleet to steer the ship. Factor in ascending young players like Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, and a dynamic center in Alperen Sengun, and the Rockets have a puncher’s chance.
Each of the past four years, we have seen a team mesh at the right time to find a magical chemistry where the whole became greater than the sum of its parts. Those teams all made a run to the Finals (and the Knicks won it all). Which team is poised to follow that path this season?
Helin: The Indiana Pacers. They were on that magical run two seasons ago, riding it all the way to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, and this season they get Tyrese Haliburton back. You can’t underestimate how much he changes the game — the Pacers offense has much better flow and feel this preseason, even with Haliburton shaking off the rust. Pascal Siakam is underrated, and he and Haliburton are surrounded by quality role players — Ivica Zubac, Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith — and this team could get on another run.
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Johnson: Indiana. I wouldn’t say people are sleeping on the Pacers, but they have the depth and talent to be a problem this season. Tyrese Haliburton is back after missing all of last season, and his return should boost everyone on that roster. Ivica Zubac is a different center than Myles Turner; he’ll roll to the basket instead of pop for three-pointers in the two-man game, but he offers much more as a rebounder. That skill should help the Pacers’ guards and wings play faster and apply more pressure to opposing defenses.
Dinsick: The potential surprise contender for me is the Toronto Raptors who are currently priced as the 7th best team in the East despite a meaningful upgrade on offense with Kawhi who was near his career high in efficiency last season. The addition of Kawhi will make life easier for Barrett, Quickley and Barnes who were all positive impact players offensively last season and they have no serious weakness on defense with their closing five, especially if Collin Murray-Boyles makes the expected leap this season. A healthy squad in April will open the door for a deep run by this group in the softer Eastern Conference.
Samulski: In my opinion, if this is going to happen, it’s going to happen in the Eastern Conference again, where things feel more wide open. I’m gonna go with the Orlando Magic. Which I know is a wild call, but the Magic starting five of Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. was one of the best five-man units in basketball last year. They were just rarely healthy together. Perhaps that changes this year and they can also bring Anthony Black, Nikola Vucevic, and Tristan Da Silva off the bench. It’s a prediction based on the strength of the starting five, but that was the Knicks’ strength too.
What is your predicted NBA Finals matchup, and who will Adam Silver hand the Larry O’Brien trophy to?
Helin: The New York Knicks make it back to the NBA Finals, but this time they run into a healthy Oklahoma City team and that is a bad matchup for New York. Oklahoma City was the best team in the NBA last season — 64 wins, +11.1 net rating — but not having a healthy Jaylen Williams or Ajay Mitchell as a secondary shot creator against the Spurs did them in. This year I expect them to be healthy and take it all. That said, if the Spurs make a leap this season behind Victor Wembanyama and dominate the league, I’m not going to be surprised.
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Johnson: I like the Spurs over the 76ers, with Victor Wembanyama winning the first of what could be many NBA titles.
Dinsick: The playoff path in the West goes through San Antonio until further notice while Toronto stuns the East, setting up a super fun Finals matchup that sees the Spurs reclaim the crown and Wemby’s first ring.
Samulski: As a New Yorker, I know this can’t happen two years in a row for the Knicks, so I’m going to say that this is a Thunder and Cavs NBA Finals, with the Thunder winning it all.
