Theories have been floated as to why Michigan football’s offense has been so dreadful.
Is it an underperforming quarterback? Are running backs missing out on opportunities for big plays? Has the offensive line regressed? Are the pass catchers not getting open? Is it a poor scheme by offensive coordinator Jason Beck?
Michigan offensive coordinator Jason Beck watches warmup ahead of the game between Michigan and Penn State at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026.
The numbers are in through seven weeks, and according to CFBData’s Bill Radjewski, the latter is the greatest problem.
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Radjewski charted 18 various stats − everything from second-level and open-field yards to short-yardage conversions and stuff rate (runs for zero yards or less) − and the numbers are woeful.
The Wolverines are worse in 17 of 18 categories as compared to their 2025 version. It’s even more damning considering it returned its quarterback, lead running back, top receiver, and five offensive linemen who had starting experience from a season ago.
The primary difference? The man calling the plays.
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Out of 68 teams in the Power Four, Michigan ranks 60th or worse in six categories, 50th or worse in 11 and is in the bottom half in all but two. For perspective, Michigan was only 60th or worse of all teams in the country in six categories last year and was in the top 30 across the FBS in more than half (10 of 18) metrics.
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Michigan is only top 30 nationally in one ranking this year − passing down success.
U-M’s worst attribute in 2026? Explosive plays of 20 yards or more, which ranks No. 135 nationally and second-to-last among Power Four teams. The Wolverines only have four carries of 20 more yards this season; two by the quarterback (one each from Bryce Underwood and Tommy Carr) and two from running backs − one from Savion Hiter and one from Bryson Kuzdzal, both in the second half of a win over Penn State.
Other woeful areas are sack rate (No. 103), standard-down success (No. 113), short-yardage conversions (No. 117), open-field yards (No. 123), points per trip inside the 40 (No. 125), second-level yards (No. 126) and turnovers per game (No. 129).
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Radjewski’s takeaway is that the early downs have broken, as U-M went from No. 15 in 2025 to No. 113 in standard-down success. That’s set up lengthier third-down attempts, which to no surprise has also plummeted from No. 24 last year to No. 93 this season.
While the offensive line has struggled in pass protection at times in terms of sack rate, Radjewski believes it’s not what’s holding back the running game. Michigan is ranked No. 31 in stuff rate (runs of zero yards or fewer) and is No. 69 in terms of “line yards.”
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Michigan’s “line yards” were No. 9 last season, so it’s taken a notable step back, but it’s still the middle of the pack. Where the runs have died is in the second level, going from No. 17 to No. 126, and in the open field, falling from No. 12 to No. 123, two areas where former U-M back Justice Haynes thrived.
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Radjewski points out that the passing downs work (No. 24) and the line has been average, which shouldn’t translate to an offense struggling to the level the Wolverines have experienced through seven games.
“Fine when they have to throw. Broken when the play-caller has the whole menu,” he wrote. “What breaks is the early-down plan and the space past the line. That’s the part a scheme is supposed to create.”
While coach Kyle Whittingham has emphasized the team is just a few plays away from being 6-1 or 7-0, Radjewski pointed out the opposite could be true, as well. The Wolverines had just a 3% chance to win against Western Michigan when down by five with 19 seconds left, and they were saved by a Hail Mary as time expired (after a controversial call put one second back on the clock).
U-M scored 13 against WMU, while other FBS opponents are averaging 22.7. U-M scored 17 points against Oklahoma − he cited how the “go-ahead drive” was just six yards after a Jyaire Hill interception set U-M up on the doorstep − and other FBS opponents are averaging 25.2 against the Sooners defense.
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While U-M outpaced opponents against UTEP (scoring 52 while average is 38.9) and the Iowa game included an 83% win expectancy, Michigan had regressed again by Week 5 when the offense managed seven points against Minnesota (set up by an interception inside Gophers territory) while other FBS opponents average 28.2 points.
In U-M’s six games that weren’t against UTEP, Michigan has averaged 15 points per game. In those games, the Wolverines have scored 11 touchdowns. One came on a Hail Mary, one was scored by the defense and five were scored after the defense forced a turnover (four of which came on the opponent’s side of the 50-yard line).
This means in those six games, Michigan has just four touchdowns that the offense generated on its own merit − responding from a punt or kickoff and going the length of the field and scoring. One of those four was the opening drive of the season.
The offense is broken in every regard, and with the current scheme in place, it’s hard to see a fix coming. Perhaps the only hope is the next two weeks the schedule eases up with Rutgers and Michigan State on deck.
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Tony Garcia is the Michigan beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Data outlines Michigan football’s offensive woes. And it’s not on the players
