Dustin Poirier thinks Islam Makhachev will have a rough night at UFC 322 if he can’t get Jack Della Maddalena to the ground for any meaningful period of time.
Poirier shared the octagon with Makhachev in a 2024 Fight of the Year candidate at UFC 302, where he ultimately succumbed to a fifth-round submission. “The Diamond” got to feel much of what Makhachev has to offer on the feet and ground over nearly five full rounds, so he has a strong understanding of what Della Maddalena is walking into on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York (ESPN+ pay-per-view, ESPNews/Disney+/FX, ESPN+).
The well-rounded game of Makhachev (27-1 MMA, 16-1 UFC) carried him to the most title-fight victories in UFC lightweight history, but now the big question is how it will translate. He moves up to welterweight to challenge champion Della Maddalena (18-2 MMA, 8-0 UFC), and he thinks many of the traits that made Makhachev elite at 155 pounds will carry into this matchup.
“It’s just going to come down to Jack’s timing, his takedown defense and his wall work and his ability to keep Islam in punching range without the takedowns,” Poirier told MMA Junkie. “Same thing that I did. Islam made me a worse striker because I couldn’t plant my feet to throw off combinations and dig down into punches because I knew if my feet were set and tied down to the ground to throw the power shot, that he was going to get on my legs. The threat of that always in front of you for 25 minutes, it’s hard to get off your combinations and get off the power shots you want to, because you know if you miss one of those punches, your legs are going to be exposed and your balance is going to be off and you’re going to get taken down.
“I think Jack’s an incredible athlete, a big puncher, good hand-speed. He has all the tools to upset Islam, it’s just can he find that rhythm where his striking and his takedown defense are kind of balanced to where he can really do damage. I don’t know if he’ll be able to find that, because I don’t know if Islam is going to sit in the pocket with him. He’s going to be touching the legs, making him think about that and from experience, it’s different to get off your combinations and set your strikes and knees and kicks up when you’re so worried about your weight distribution on your legs because this guy is going to be snatch a leg as soon as you miss a punch.”
If Della Maddalena, 29, is able to stifle the offensive grappling of Makhachev, 34, then former interim UFC champ Poirier, who now serves as an analyst since retirement, thinks the advantage tips significantly to Della Maddalena.
“That’s where it’s going to be tough for Islam,” Poirier said. “He has to threaten with grappling somewhere. He can’t just sit there and exchange combinations with JDM in the center of the cage. I don’t think he can do that. He’s going to lose if he does that. I think he might have some moments where he lands a shot or does something, but he’s going to have to keep going back to the legs to keep Jack guessing. Is it up or down, up or down. He can’t just sit and kick box with Jack for 25 minutes. I don’t think he’s on that level.”
Poirier said he thinks too much is being made of Makhachev’s physical transformation and whether he will hold up to the size and strength of Della Maddalena. He doesn’t believe “size is going to be the story of this fight,” and expects it to come down to the skills.
If that is indeed the case, Poirier thinks Makhachev emerges with the belt over five hard-fought rounds and joins the short list of names to win UFC titles in two weight classes.
“I would think Islam my decision,” Poirier said. “But if Jack does win, I’m not going to be totally blown away if he lands a shot that hurts Islam or a knee or something. Obviously if he beats Islam by decision or submits Islam, then I’m going to be blown away. But I’ve got to go Islam by decision. If I was betting on it, that’s what I would bet on. He has everything it takes to pull off this upset, but if I had to make a final decision, I would go Islam.”
