The Big Ten currently holds bragging rights for the best conference in college football.
The SEC may still receive more national recognition. But after the latest round of conference realignment and Ohio State‘s 2024 national title, the 18-team Big Ten measures up well compared to its southern counterpart. The conference boasts three of ESPN SP+’s top-six-ranked teams entering the 2025 season, including Ohio State at No. 1. It also dominated the SEC during the 2024 postseason, including several College Football Playoff triumphs.
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That elevated standing can help to inform our 2025 season preview work. The Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks and Penn State Nittany Lions again project as the conference’s best, with Michigan, Iowa, Indiana and others also in the mix.
Those projections focus solely on each team’s quality. They must be considered along with their strength of schedule and path through conference play. Seen with Indiana last season, a good team with an easy schedule can combine for an 11-1 run and a CFP berth. Wisconsin in 2025 may display the opposite — a solid team with one of the toughest slates in the sport.
So, just as we did last weekend with each Big Ten team’s full 12-game schedule, it’s time for a specific forecast of conference play.
A reminder of the methodology:
The equation used to compare each slate is simple. First, we take each team’s SP+ rating to find a numerical value for every game. The higher that number, the tougher the matchup. We then add every opponent’s SP+ rating together to find a total opponent score. That large number is divided by the number 12 (total games) to find the average opponent score — a number that can then be compared to the SP+ leaderboard to find, on average, what a team will face each week. The game’s location (home or away) is not factored into analysis.
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With that, as we continue to predict 2025’s true Big Ten contenders, sleepers and potential breakouts, here is every team’s conference schedule in 2025, ranked from easiest to toughest.
18. Illinois Fighting Illini
Oct 26, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema watches players warm up before a game against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 34.8
Average Opponent Score: 3.86 (akin to the 49th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
All of our preview work points to a similar takeaway: Illinois has a golden opportunity for a CFP breakthrough in 2025. It has a similar conference schedule to Indiana’s 2024 slate. That includes one big game against Ohio State, then eight winnable matchups.
17. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore uses hand signal 4-0 to celebrates the Wolverines 4th straight win over Ohio State at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024.
Total Opponent Score: 36.2
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Average Opponent Score: 4.02 (akin to the 47th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Michigan enters 2025 with significant momentum, plus plays one of the conference’s easiest schedules. A 4-0 start against Nebraska, Wisconsin, USC and Washington could bring an undefeated season into play. Nobody should be surprised if the Wolverines are 8-0 in conference and in a CFP spot entering the Ohio State game.
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 48.5
Average Opponent Score: 5.38 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
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Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
A nonconference test against Notre Dame inflates USC’s overall schedule. Without that contest, the Trojans have a manageable conference slate. They face Oregon and Michigan but miss both Penn State and Ohio State. Light matchups against Purdue, Michigan State and Northwestern should provide a strong floor, with the team’s ceiling being a Big Ten title game appearance.
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
15. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Nov 29, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck looks on before taking the field prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 59.1
Average Opponent Score: 6.56 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
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Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Minnesota has a golden opportunity in 2025. While it visits both Ohio State and Oregon, it could be favored in almost every other game it plays. Wins over Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin could lead to a 7-2 conference record, a 10-2 overall mark and a potential CFP berth.
Dec 20, 2024; Notre Dame, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti during the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 59.9
Average Opponent Score: 6.65 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Indiana is unlikely to repeat its breakthrough 2024 performance. However, it should still have a path to eight or nine wins. Wins over Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA and Maryland could give the Hoosiers the floor of bowl eligibility.
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Aug 31, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule reacts during the second quarter against the UTEP Miners at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 63.8
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Average Opponent Score: 7.08 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Nebraska has a golden opportunity to take a big step forward in year three under Matt Rhule. The team visits Penn State, but it gets USC, Michigan and Iowa at home. An 8-4 or 9-3 season should be the expectation if Rhule is as-advertised.
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire
12. Maryland Terrapins
Oct 19, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley during the second half Southern California Trojans at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 64.1
Average Opponent Score: 7.12 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
It’s worth watching Mike Locksley’s job status entering the 2025 season, especially with former Maryland athletic director Damon Evans moving to SMU. The Terrapins have an easy schedule by Big Ten standards, missing Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State. However, is the team good enough to find wins against Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA, Rutgers, or Michigan State?
11. Ohio State Buckeyes
![Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day raises the Stagg Championship Trophy along with Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver K.J. Hill Jr. (14), Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Binjimen Victor (9) and Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Chase Young (2) following the Buckeyes' 34-21 victory against the Wisconsin Badgers during the Big Ten Football Championship Game on Saturday, December 7, 2019 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. [Joshua A. Bickel/Dispatch]
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Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day raises the Stagg Championship Trophy along with Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver K.J. Hill Jr. (14), Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Binjimen Victor (9) and Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Chase Young (2) following the Buckeyes’ 34-21 victory against the Wisconsin Badgers during the Big Ten Football Championship Game on Saturday, December 7, 2019 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. [Joshua A. Bickel/Dispatch] Osu19b10 Jb 30 1
Total Opponent Score: 64.7
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Average Opponent Score: 7.18 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Ohio State’s conference schedule is more manageable than its overall slate, which includes a big game against Texas to open the season. A Nov. 1 home game against Penn State and a Nov. 29 trip to Michigan will decide the Buckeyes’ season. A 1-1 split in those games, like the team registered last year, should be good enough for a CFP appearance.
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire
10. Washington Huskies
Nov 2, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch stands on the sideline during the first quarter against the USC Trojans at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 74.6
Average Opponent Score: 8.28 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country)
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Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Washington has a middle-of-the-road schedule in 2025. That includes tough games against Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State, but also light matchups against Purdue and Maryland. Washington will be expected to return to an eight-win caliber. Games against Rutgers, Wisconsin and UCLA could decide that fate.
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire
9. Penn State Nittany Lions
Jan 9, 2025; Miami, FL, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 78.8
Average Opponent Score: 8.75 (akin to the 33rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Penn State’s conference schedule is much tougher than its overall slate. While Ohio State plays Texas and Michigan plays Oklahoma in the nonconference, Penn State opens with three light matchups. As always, the team’s season will come down to its big games — vs. Oregon and at Ohio State
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Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire
8. Oregon Ducks
Jan 1, 2025; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning during a timeout in the first quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 79.3
Average Opponent Score: 8.81 (akin to the 33rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Oregon will be expected to return to the Big Ten title game, challenging schedule or not. The Ducks only draw Penn State (no Ohio State or Michigan). However, they face a tough week-in, week-out schedule. That is clearly represented by a challenging closing run against Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, USC and Washington.
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
Nov 30, 2024; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach DeShaun Foster on the sidelines during the third quarter against the Fresno State Bulldogs at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 82
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Average Opponent Score: 9.11 (akin to the 33rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
UCLA faces a tough road to a winning conference record. While Northwestern, Michigan State and Maryland look like wins, the rest of the slate should provide a week-in, week-out challenge. Closing contests against Washington and USC will likely decide if the Bruins reach a bowl game.
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire
Sep 21, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun watches pregame warmups against the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 87.2
Average Opponent Score: 9.68 (akin to the 30th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
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Northwestern is currently ranked No. 87 (-6.1) in SP+, the second-lowest mark in the conference. While it gets a few winnable games against UCLA and Purdue, the team may have trouble reaching last year’s four-win total.
T-4. Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith looks on from the sideline during the third quarter in the game against Rutgers on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.
Total Opponent Score: 92.3
Average Opponent Score: 10.25 (akin to the 27th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Michigan State fans will feel like the Big Ten East still exists, as the Spartans play Michigan and Penn State, plus strong USC, Nebraska, Iowa and Indiana teams. Michigan State’s 2025 fate will be more about whether the team improves in year two under Jonathan Smith. Schedule aside, missing another bowl game would be a worst-case outcome.
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Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire
Purdue football head coach Barry Odom and Purdue athletic director Mike Bobinski pose for a photo Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024, during the welcoming of Odom at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind.
Total Opponent Score: 92.3
Average Opponent Score: 10.25 (akin to the 27th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Barry Odom would do well to win more than one conference game in his first season with the Boilermakers. Not only is the schedule a major challenge, but nearly the entire roster has turned over since the end of last season.
3. Iowa Hawkeyes
Nov 8, 2024; Pasadena, California, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz on the sidelines during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 94.2
Average Opponent Score: 10.46 (akin to the 26th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
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Iowa draws Penn State and Oregon, plus potential breakout USC and Nebraska teams. That makes matchups against Wisconsin and Iowa almost must-win for the team to keep its classic eight-win pace.
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano against the Kansas State Wildcats during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 100
Average Opponent Score: 11.11 (akin to the 25th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Rutgers’ run of easy schedules comes to an end in 2025. The team will need a great performance to replicate 2024’s 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten) finish. That would include toss-up wins over Minnesota, Washington and Iowa, in addition to taking care of Purdue and Maryland — which is not guaranteed.
Oct 5, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell during the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Total Opponent Score: 119
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Average Opponent Score: 13.22 (akin to the 20th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
After opening against Maryland, Wisconsin does not receive a break in its conference schedule. On average, the team faces a top-20 team every week. A four-game stretch against Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Oregon headlines that gauntlet. A 4-5 finish would feel like a major victory.
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This article originally appeared on Badgers Wire: Big Ten football 2025 conference schedule difficulty power rankings
