Royal Portrush hosts the 153rd edition of The Open Championship, and Northern Ireland’s own Rory McIlroy is among the betting favorites entering the men’s final major of the season.
But he’s not THE favorite.
That distinction belongs to world No. 1 and reigning PGA champion Scottie Scheffler. Masters — and Grand Slam — champ McIlroy is a clear second choice, with Jon Rahm, who has three top-10s in his last four Open starts, third.
Betting expert Brad Thomas, however, is going in a different direction:
Viktor Hovland, to win: +3000
When major season rolls around, betting trends get thrown around a bit too much. But there were a few that caught my eye, which I felt had some significance.
Open Championship Trends:
- The last 10 Open winners have had a previous top-two finish in a major;
- Eighteen of the last 24 winners have finished inside the top 10 in a previous Open Championship;
- Ten of the last 11 winners finished inside the top three in one of their last five events.
When I look at these trends, there’s a player who instantly comes to mind: Viktor Hovland. Not only does he meet the criteria above, but his game also fits Royal Portrush and makes him a viable betting option.
Hovland Trend Satisfaction:
- Win at the Valspar Championship
- T-2 at the 2023 PGA Championship
- T-4 at the 2022 Open Championship
- Third at the 2025 U.S. Open
Unlike last week at the Renaissance Club, the greens at Royal Portrush are on the smaller side, and the course has natural defenses against any player who thinks they can bomb and gouge their way around the property.
Accuracy off the tee will be important here, but with the below-average green sizes, it’s the second shot that’s most correlated to success.
Over the last 24 rounds, Hovland is second in the field in strokes gained: approach, only behind Scottie Scheffler. He’s first from 175-200 yards, and second from 150-175.
Off the tee, he’s not a massive gainer, but he’s hitting fairways at a 62% clip while averaging 306 yards.
With a T-4 finish at St Andrews in 2022, Hovland has shown that he can compete in The Open. He is arguably the best player without a major, and there’s a strong chance that can change come Sunday.
2025 Open Championship odds (as of Wednesday, courtesy DraftKings):
- Scottie Scheffler: +450
- Rory McIlroy: +750
- Jon Rahm: +1200
- Bryson DeChambeau: +2200
- Xander Schauffele: +2200
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2500
- Ludvig Åberg: +3000
- Viktor Hovland: +3000
- Tyrrell Hatton: +3000
- Collin Morikawa: +3500
- Shane Lowry: +4000
- Robert MacIntyre: +4500
- Sepp Straka: +5000
- Justin Thomas: +5000
- Brooks Koepka: +5500
- Matt Fitzpatrick: +5500
- Jordan Spieth: +5500
- Joaquin Niemann: +5500
