It was a devastating 24 hours in Oklahoma City. Everyone who saw Jalen Williams go down against the Clippers knew how bad it was, as Thunder GM Sam Presti put it, “This is an injury that generally we see more in football players.” On top of that came the news that Cason Wallace has a torn labrum and will need to undergo surgery. Presti and OKC won’t put a timeline on things, but history suggests neither player will touch the court again this season.
Now what?
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What should we expect from the Thunder going forward? First: Expect a lot of wins. This team was without Williams for large chunks of last regular season and still won 64 games, most in the NBA. In their one game so far without their two starters (not to mention no Chet Holmgren or Alex Caruso), the Thunder still easily handled the Suns. The other change is that while the defense will still be good, it will not be elite. Instead, this is about to become an offensive team. That wins a lot of regular-season games.
But what about the playoffs? And what should we look for?
More Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain
The Thunder have a natural replacement for Wallace: Ajay Mitchell. In his first game in that role this season, Mitchell stepped up, showed off his physicality and midrange game, and dropped 30 on the Suns.
Mitchell is not the All-Defense-level player on that end that Wallace is, but he works hard and is a plus defender who fits within the system.
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Williams is a more difficult role to fill, largely because there aren’t other players like him. There will be more Alex Caruso, but coach Mark Daigneault and the Thunder know they can’t overtax him. Jared McCain will get more minutes, but he is a guard, not a forward. Kenrich Williams may see the biggest jump in minutes, and he is rock solid, but he’s not an All-NBA level talent like Williams.
Lean into center rotation
Oklahoma City has the best big man rotation in the NBA. Chet Holmgren — second in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season while averaging 17.1 points per game — and Isaiah Hartenstein start at the four and five. However, what makes this work is the depth. Jaylin Williams is the kind of big off the bench every team could use, and rookie Aday Mara has proven he deserves a spot in the rotation.
Oklahoma City needs to lean hard into its strengths, and it has the best center rotation in the league.
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Don’t expect big trade
When asked about what the injuries mean in terms of a roster move, Thunder General Manager Sam Presti said he hadn’t thought about that yet. He was still processing the injuries.
However, the tea leaves suggest OKC is not likely to make a big move. First, this team is already good, has great locker-room chemistry and wins games. Why mess with that?
Second, this team made moves this offseason that Presti admitted weren’t basketball moves but were about saving money, trading away Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. As constructed, the Thunder are expensive and about to get even more so in the coming years. Oklahoma City is already over the first apron of the luxury tax and is about $6.9 million below the second apron, a line they are very unlikely to cross during the season. While the Thunder have an open roster spot and can get a disabled player exception for Williams worth close to $15 million, no game-changing free agents are available for them to snap up. The Thunder could consider a trade depending on how the season plays out, but they don’t want to mess up their chemistry or take on much more money.
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The Thunder are going to stick with the players they have, and at the trade deadline they can make small adjustments as needed, but it’s far more likely to be small moves, not a blockbuster.
What does all this mean for the Thunder in the playoffs? It’s far too early to have a clear picture of the West, but Oklahoma City has gone from the early favorite in the West to a team that will enter the playoffs with matchups in mind. Who do they have now who can defend Luka Doncic or Kevin Durant?
The road for the Thunder back to the NBA Finals just got bumpier and steeper, but it’s not closed off. Things will look different, but OKC could still win it all.
