World Championships Relay Analysis: Without Ariarne Titmus, Can Australian Women Maintain 800 Free Relay Supremacy?
Favorite status did not always suit Australia in the women’s 800 free relay. Considered the clear top team entering the Tokyo Olympics, poor splits from Ariarne Titmus and Emma McKeon were impossible to overcome as China won gold and the United States silver. A year later at the World Championships, the Aussies again faced a setback as inspired closing splits from Katie Ledecky and Bella Sims helped the United States to an upset.
But since then, the country’s 200-meter supremacy has shown through. Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan have become entrenched as the top-two swimmers in the world at this distance, and they have led their teams to world-record-setting swims at the 2022 Commonwealth Games and 2023 World Championships. A win by more than two-and-a-half seconds at the Paris Olympics was only the country’s second gold medal ever in the event.
This year, adding another world title becomes tricky thanks to the absence of Titmus, with the 24-year-old taking the year off from competition. When she anchored in the Olympic final, Titmus dove in with a narrow lead before blasting a 1:52.95 homecoming split. Reliable veteran Brianna Throssell will also be absent. Now, the country will rely on O’Callaghan and its impressive depth to secure another gold.
At last week’s Australian Trials, O’Callaghan swam the fastest time in the world this year in the 200 free in 1:54.43, while Lani Pallister was not far away. Pallister put together a stunning week in the distance races, moving to No. 3 all-time in the 800 and 1500 free and getting under 4:00 for the first time in the 400 free. Her 200-meter performance of 1:54.89 crushed her existing lifetime best and ranks No. 2 in the world behind O’Callaghan.
That will be a tough deficit for any other country to overcome, even an American group departing U.S. Nationals with five swimmers having broken 1:56 this year. Below are the added-up times for the top countries in this event. Only 2025 season-best times are used here, but limitations of this analysis will be considered.
- Australia: Mollie O’Callaghan 1:54.43 + Lani Pallister 1:54.89 + Jamie Perkins 1:55.44 + Abbey Webb/Hannah Casey 1:56.09 = 7:40.85
- United States: Claire Weinstein 1:54.92 + Erin Gemmell 1:55.23 + Katie Ledecky 1:55.26 + Anna Peplowski 1:55.70 = 7:41.11
- China: Liu Yaxin 1:54.96 + Li Bingjie 1:55.52 + Yang Peiqi 1:56.59 + Yu Yiting 1:57.00 = 7:44.07
- Great Britain: Freya Colbert 1:55.76 + Leah Schlosshan 1:57.80 + Abbie Wood 1:57.98 + Freya Anderson 1:58.87 = 7:50.41
- Canada: Mary-Sophie Harvey 1:56.46 + Ella Jansen 1:57.33 + Sienna Angove 1:59.07 + Brooklyn Douthwright 1:59.44 = 7:52.30
These composite relays put Australia less than three tenths clear of the United States but with one key ace left to play. O’Callaghan is the second-fastest performer ever in the 200 free at 1:52.48, almost two seconds quicker than she swam at Trials. Getting close to that form gives her team an edge before Pallister tries to back up her huge improvements this year and then inexperienced swimmers take their turns on the relay, with Jamie Perkins, Abbey Webb and Hannah Casey all new to the pressures of a Worlds final.
U.S. freestylers Bella Sims, Claire Weinstein & Katie Ledecky — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
As for the United States, there are options to sort through before picking a final relay quartet. Claire Weinstein has become clearly the country’s top 200 freestyler, and Ledecky has been a staple of the finals quartet going back to 2013. The No. 3 swimmer from U.S. Nationals was Torri Huske, who will not only make her 800 free relay debut at the World Championships but also add the 200 free to her schedule after Ledecky declined the spot in the individual event.
Ironically, Huske is not included on the composite relay above because Erin Gemmell and Anna Peplowski both eclipsed Huske’s time in a swim-off for fourth place in the event at Nationals. The U.S. coaching staff will have to weigh the performances of all swimmers throughout the meet plus their event schedules (Huske has the 100 free prelims and semifinals the same day as the 800 free relay) before determining the strategy. Sims is also an option, having returned to the U.S. team after a rough summer of 2024, and Simone Manuel could also be added to the group.
China is the clear choice for bronze based on performances so far this year, with Liu Yaxin and Li Bingjie at the forefront. However, the Chinese team will not have the services of Yang Junxuan, the 200 free world champion in 2022 and a consistent presence on this relay. She led off the gold-medal-winning team at the Tokyo Olympics and returned to that slot last year, her opening leg of 1:54.52 putting China in second place on the way to a bronze medal. Her absence will be hard to make up for.
Canada and Great Britain took fourth and fifth, respectively, at the Games, and they are the toughest challengers to the established big three in the event. Great Britain will be led by Freya Colbert while Freya Anderson looks to return to the 1:55s and 1:56s she has posted throughout her career.
Canada’s composite relay undersells what this team is capable of for two primary reasons: first, expect Summer McIntosh to be added to the team despite skipping the race at Canadian Trials and throughout the year to this point. McIntosh split 1:53.97, the best non-Australian split of the race, in the Paris final. Additionally, Mary-Sophie Harvey clocked 1:55.29 as she took fourth in the 200 free individually in Paris, so a jump from her can be expected.
