Paul Toboni made several moves at his first trade deadline, but the biggest one was with his old club. He cashed in on Curtis Mead’s breakout first half to acquire standout 24 year old lefty Connelly Early. Toboni is very familiar with Early, being the one who drafted him in Boston. Now, the duo is reunited in DC, and hopefully the partnership can be fruitful.
If you told someone before the 2026 season started that Mead would be traded straight up for Early, any knowledgeable baseball fan would call you crazy. Mead was DFA’d by the White Sox right before Opening Day, and the Nats acquired him for the unknown Boston Smith (who also had a monster year and was traded again at the deadline). Meanwhile, Early looked like a stud in his September callup and started a win or go home game.
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However, this one for one trade ended up happening about a week before the deadline. It was not like Early was having a bad season in Boston either. Some of his underlying metrics were mildly concerning, but Early still had a 3.44 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 91.2 innings for the Red Sox. He was already establishing himself as a reliable middle of the rotation starter as a rookie.
There was one catch though, Early was hurt at the time of the trade. He exited a start against the Nationals with elbow soreness at the end of June. However, there was no structural damage on his MRI, so the injury was not going to keep him out that long. The injury scare, combined with the Red Sox glut of left handed starters and their need for offense led to them moving Early for Mead.
Neither team really got anything out of the trade in 2026 though. Mead was hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in his second at bat, causing him to miss the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Early, who was supposed to come back some time in August, suffered a setback. While ramping up again, Early felt some discomfort in his forearm. That caused the Nats to shut him down temporarily.
However, the discomfort was very mild, and the Nats cautiously ramped up Early again in an effort to get him on the mound by the end of the year. After a few rehab starts, Early was able to make a start in the second to last game of the season.
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We only saw three innings, but it was very impressive. Early was in command of his six pitch mix and kept the Mets hitters off balance. He only allowed one hit and did not walk anyone. The lefty cruised through three innings on just 34 pitches. It gave Nats fans a sneak peak of what is to come.
With Early not pitching for most of his time with the Nats, the mood around the trade was a bit negative. Nobody was writing off Early, but there was plenty of grumbling about where the team would be with Mead. That last start of the season provided a lot of optimism for fans. We got to see why Paul Toboni was so high on Early.
For the season, Early posted a 3.33 ERA in 94.2 innings with 94 strikeouts. The peripherals suggested his ERA should probably be in the low to mid 4’s, but Early was able to overachieve. Moving forward, I think Early could be able to match that 3.33 ERA, but do it in a more sustainable manner.
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Early has a strong combination of stuff, feel and command. He throws a 4-seamer, a sinker, a changeup, a curveball, a sweeper and a slider. It is very impressive to see a young pitcher show the ability to use so many different weapons. His velocity is only average, but a strong fastball shape makes the pitch effective. Early is able to show a variety of different secondary pitches off that fastball.
Right now, Early sits at 94 on his 4-seamer, but as a leaner guy, I wonder if he can add another tick of velocity with additional strength training. Early has said getting stronger is a priority for him. That added strength could help his durability, along with the velocity.
While Early pitched well, he did suffer that injury that held him out for months. He has not pitched more than 103 innings in his pro career, so being able to log innings is a slight question. The health is a question, but the fact he got back on the mound this year makes me a lot more optimistic.
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Moving forward, I think Early will be the perfect number 3 starter for the Nats. A rotation consisting of Cavalli, Early and one other big time arm could make the Nationals rotation a strength. At the deadline, we knew that Nats needed pitching help badly. I think Connelly Early will be a part of the solution moving forward.
