UFC Vegas 119 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., June 20, 2026) inside the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, Manel Kape returns to action in a rematch nine years in the making against Japanese star Kyoji Horiguchi.
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We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in “Sin City” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 119 betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Vegas 119 odds here).
Last week’s recap: Well, Sean O’Malley got back to his finishing ways, and he knocked out Aiemann Zahabi, who had been finished since 2017 (watch it here) — I obviously didn’t see that coming. FML.
Let’s keep rolling below:
On the UFC Vegas 119 prelims, decorated jiu-jitsu ace Bia Mesquita takes on Melissa Mullins in what feels like a showcase opportunity for one of the most accomplished grapplers to ever step foot inside the Octagon.
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This week, I’m locking in Mesquita vs. Mullins to end via submission at -110.
Here’s Why:
Honestly, I’m shocked these odds aren’t significantly higher.
Mesquita has looked exactly like what she is: one of the greatest pure Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitors ever to transition into MMA. Through six professional victories, she owns a 100 percent finish rate, and four of those have come by submission.
That’s not a coincidence.
It’s a skill set so overwhelming that opponents eventually find themselves trapped.
What’s even more impressive is what she’s done to her recent competition. Mesquita’s last two opponents had never been submitted before stepping into the cage with her.
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Then they fought Mesquita (watch highlights).
Now Mullins enters with a similar distinction. She’s never been submitted as a professional.
If you’re sensing a pattern, so am I.
Stylistically, this feels like a mismatch. Mesquita doesn’t just possess good grappling — she possesses all-time great grappling. Once she establishes position, she advances methodically and forces mistakes. Few fighters on the roster possess the technical ability to survive there.
Frankly, the UFC should already be matching her against Top 10 competition. Mesquita is older than the typical prospect and doesn’t need developmental fights. The promotion should be fast-tracking her to determine exactly how high her ceiling is against elite opposition.
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Instead, she’s getting Mullins.
And while Mullins deserves credit for reaching the UFC, she hasn’t been particularly impressive during her run. She’s also missed weight twice, raising additional questions about preparation and discipline at the highest level.
What could go wrong?
The biggest risk is that Mullins recognizes the danger and fights ultra-defensively, forcing Mesquita to win minutes rather than hunt submissions. There’s also the possibility that Mesquita just pounds her out for a knockout win.
Still, given Mesquita’s submission record, her elite credentials, and her recent habit of submitting fighters who had never previously tapped, Mesquita vs. Mullins to end by submission (-110) feels like one of the best values on the UFC Vegas 119 card.
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Bia Mesquita To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +450
Bia Mesquita To Win By Submission: -110
Bia Mesquita To Win By Decision: +275
Melissa Mullins To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +1100
Melissa Mullins by Submission: +3500
Melissa Mullins To Win By Decision: +750
To checkout the latest UFC Vegas 119 fight card and rumors click here.
