I reached out to the folks at Black Shoe Diaries to talk about this weekend’s game between their Nittany Lions and our Purdue Boilermakers. They were kind enough to respond with some informative answers to my questions. Make sure to go check them out.
Penn State has not won a Big Ten game yet this year. The schedule to start the year has turned out to be a lot tougher than most people probably thought going in. Given the turnover at the top, what was expected of Penn State by fans coming into this season?
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I predicted a 9-3 season. Some others on our site were at least mentioning the word playoff in the offseason. Personally, I thought Penn State would have enough experience with Matt Campbell’s system considering that there would be so much continuity with so many players making the move from Iowa State. A lot of that optimism was tied to the schedule. Unlike 2025 where Penn State jumped right into the deep end with a showdown against Oregon in conference play, this year seemed like it would give some runway for the Lions to work things out before a Whiteout matchup against USC. That seemed to be the plan until halftime of the Wisconsin game. From that 17-0 lead against the Badgers, the Lions have struggled mightily.
Three of the four Big Ten losses have come by 8 or fewer points. Is this a situation where Penn State may be 0-4 but they could very easily be 3-1? I guess the crux of my question is, is Penn State better than their record reflects?
I think it should be at least 1-3. The Wisconsin loss was egregious. Penn State led from the start. They could never quite put away the Badgers, had to settle for field goals, committed a brutal turnover, and then allowed a couple of long conversions in the loss. This team isn’t as talented as last year’s Penn State team, but there are some similarities. They’ve had second half leads in three of the four losses, just as last year’s Penn State team lost fourth quarter/overtime leads to Oregon, Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern.
I’m pulling the old Bill Parcells, you are what your record says you are – so this is a flawed team, but still a team that is capable of beating a lot of teams in the conference.
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Penn State has a reputation for being a very solid defensive program, but right now they have for instance just 9 sacks on the season. What have been the biggest strengths and the biggest weaknesses of this Penn State defense?
They have NO playmakers on the edge. While Penn State has long been known as Linebacker U, it’s had impressive edge rushers over the past decade – most notably Micah Parsons and Abdul Carter. There’s no one on the roster like that. They have one very good linebacker – Tony Rojas is having an All-American caliber season. Meanwhile, the secondary is solid, especially at the corner spots. But overall, it’s a group that lacks the speed and athleticism that have been hallmarks of Penn State defense over the past decade..
Penn State has 1,700+ passing yards and 900+ rushing yards on the season. Is that indicative of the kind of balance they are seeking on the offensive side of the ball?
They can’t run the ball very well – and haven’t had any explosive plays since conference play started. They entered the year talking about having an identity and being able to grind teams down, but that simply hasn’t happened. So, that’s meant a lot of putting the ball in Rocco Becht’s hands. There might be some Purdue fans out there who also pull for the Indianapolis Colts (I’m a Colts season ticket holder believe it or not) and there are major Daniel Jones vibes with Becht. It seems like it’s not a matter of if, but when Becht is going to make a bad decision. Against Michigan, the Wolverines scored three touchdowns – each of them after a Becht turnover. There’s talk that wide receiver Koby Howard might be back on Saturday. If he is, then Penn State will have two capable wide receivers with which to attack Purdue. Chase Sowell has emerged as a consistent wide receiver and Howard/Sowell would be the best duo that the Lions have had in years.
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What do you think needs to be changed for Penn State to get back to winning?
Avoid turnovers and finish in the red zone. Again, had they done those two things – they beat Wisconsin and Michigan. They probably knock off USC, too. But this team has simply not made winning plays and it’s been very frustrating for Penn State fans.
Purdue obviously has struggles of their own right now, but what worries you most about this matchup with the Boilermakers?
I think Purdue’s offense can put up points. I think they run the ball well and Brown, from the games that I have watched, has shown the ability to throw the ball down the field. I do believe Penn State will move the ball between the 20’s, but what scares me is that the Lions settle for field goals and the Boilers get some touchdowns.
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Finally, what’s your prediction for this Halloween matchup?
I’ll take Penn State to get the win – mostly based on playing at home and thinking that it’s still a more experienced roster. But, I do think it’s a highly competitive game.
Penn State 23, Purdue 21
